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Who’s going to win the Chase? Anyone who claims to know is lying. The process has too many variables. The Sprint Cup champion is going to have to perform, but he’s also going to have to be lucky. No one who predicts this turkey shoot is playing anything but a hunch.

Scribes, pundits, wags and show-offs will often throw out a long shot because they want to be able to claim swami status by picking a moderate underdog, thus enabling them to claim great powers of analysis they do not actually possess.

Or, if applicable, they make a pick based on a number gleaned from a Powerball ticket or a fortune cookie.

Think about it. Sixteen drivers are in the Chase, racing one another while weaving in and out of 24 other drivers who are basically garnish on the plate. For three weeks, 16 get to vie for eligibility in a second round of 12. For three more weeks, 12 work to be one of eight. Then eight try to be one of four. Then four titans clash once, at Homestead-Miami Speedway, for all the marbles, even though no one really has a marbles fetish.

That we know of.

A Chase is even in the Chase. If Chase Elliott was in the Kentucky Derby, I’d bet him across – win, place and show – even though I don’t really believe in superstitions. I do it just in case there’s something to it.

Anyone who is in the Chase can win it. It’s the way it was devised. Here’s how each driver could win it all. Here are your scenarios, your story lines, your sprinklings of stardust and satire:

Chris Buescher can win the championship if the oceans boil.

Kurt Busch can win if it comes down to consistency. He has stayed out of trouble better than most all his peers.

Kyle Busch, in contrast to his older brother, can win by … winning at the right times. He has been erratic down the stretch.

Austin Dillon can win the championship if dogs and cats, after raining from the heavens, lie together once on the ground.

Carl Edwards can win if NASCAR awards bonus points to any driver who can do a back flip.

Chase Elliott can win if the championship comes down to self-deprecation and modesty, which is unlikely.

Denny Hamlin could go on a Chase tear. He can win if his recent success means he hits the Chase in peak form and if he can slow the freak down on pit road.

Kevin Harvick can win the Chase if, as usual, he wins Phoenix and is still around by that point. It’s a good point in the season to have that ace in the hole.

Jimmie Johnson can win the Chase if his recent troubles are just a ruse. He’s won two races this year. Anyone still remember them?

Matt Kenseth can win the Chase if he maintains his famous cool and avoids the uncharacteristic frontier justice of a year ago. He didn’t turn ugly until he was already out of the hunt. If he pulls that stuff again, it can no longer be deemed uncharacteristic.

Brad Keselowski can win the Chase by being smart, opportunistic and calculating. I’d give Kenseth a wide berth for a few weeks, which he will do if he’s as smart as I think he is.

Kyle Larson can win the Chase if his long-awaited victory makes the occasional lapses disappear. It happens sometimes when the lid comes off. As the late, great Barney Hall would have said hundreds of times about him by now, “He can drive the wheels of that car.”

Joey Logano can win the Chase by showing the maturity that he seems to have developed this year. The flip side is that he doesn’t seem to be as fast, week to week. Jamie McMurray can win the Chase if, even as the globe warms, hell freezes over.

Tony Stewart can win the Chase either by consistency or repeated wins – he is the only man to win one Chase without winning any of its races and another by winning a record five – but the greater question is if there is still enough gas in the tank. Stewart is mean. So was Dale Earnhardt.

Martin Truex Jr. can win by avoiding the unbelievable misfortunes that plagued him in the regular season. He is probably the sport’s most unflappable driver right now, possibly because he has seen it all.

Or so I think.