Two out of three ain’t bad. Or, at least, that’s how Matt Smith sees his chances of hat accumulation at the final stop on the 2024 NHRA Mission Foods Drag Racing Series schedule.

Smith, a six-time NHRA Pro Stock Motorcycle champion, understood at the In-N-Out NHRA Finals, the best chances he had for the weekend included the low-qualifier and event-winner hats. He could still get a third hat, but it will require point leader and rival Gaige Herrera to lose first round, and Smith to win it all.

Smith likes his chances of running the table and winning the event, but Herrera losing first round … that’s going to take a miracle.

“As long as one of our four bikes wins, that’s what we came here for,” Smith said.

Smith lamented the number of mistakes he made in the Countdown after the points reset, which pulled him and the bike field within striking distance of Herrera. He still has a chance to drift into uncharted territory.

“It looks like we’ll probably finish second in the points, and that’s something that I’ve never done in my whole career,” Smith said. “I’ve never finished second. So it’s either first or third or fourth or fifth or somewhere down the line. So, all in all, that’s what we’re going for right now.”

Those mistakes Smith referred to might be better described as bad racing luck.

“We had a fuel pump power break, which cost us 20 points that we had in Round Two,” Smith explained. “St. Louis, we had a cam sensor that went out, and that cost us 20 points. We had that Round One. And then, of course, Dallas, we had Gaige beat in the finals, and that was a 40-point swing. Gaige, take 20 away from him and give us 20, right there; if we take those three rounds, that’s 80 points. We got a drag race right now for this championship.

“But all in all, we had too many mistakes, and not saying it’s hard mistakes, just parts failures. And that’s what happens when we’re pushing these things as hard as we are.”